Mortgage and refinancing rates today, March 4

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

According to your lender, average mortgage rates edged up yesterday after three days of no hikes. Read on to find out what’s going on.

Judging by the early markets, we could be in another pretty calm day. And mortgage rates may be unchanged or barely changed today. But with investors so nervous, a more appreciable move is possible.

Find and lock a great rate (May 24, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

Program Mortgage rate APR* Switch
Conventional 30 years fixed 3.059% 3.062% + 0.09%
Conventional 15 years fixed 2.493% 2.502% Unchanged
Conventional 20 years fixed 2,868% 2.875% + 0.01%
Conventional 10 years fixed 2.452% 2.47% Unchanged
30 years FHA fixed 2.875% 3.554% + 0.12%
15-year fixed FHA 2,521% 3.103% + 0.04%
ARM FHA 5 years 2.5% 3.213% Unchanged
Fixed VA 30 years 2.375% 2,547% + 0.12%
15-year fixed VA 2.25% 2,571% Unchanged
5-year VA ARM 2.5% 2,392% Unchanged
Prices are provided by our network of partners and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a personalized quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Find and lock a great rate (May 24, 2021)


COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders change rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest news on the impact of the coronavirus on your home loan, Click here.

Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?

Yesterday’s mortgage rate hike was neither here nor there. This is because, depending on your lender, you may not have seen any at all.

However, if the reasons for the rise (see below) gain ground among investors, it could be the first of many. Of course, nothing is certain and it could explode.

But my personal rate foreclosure recommendations are as follows:

  • LOCK in case of closure 7 days
  • LOCK in case of closure 15 days
  • LOCK in case of closure 30 days
  • LOCK in case of closure 45 days
  • LOCK in case of closure 60 days

With so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.

Market data affecting current mortgage rates

Here’s a look at the state of play this morning around 9:50 a.m. ET. The data, compared to around the same time yesterday, was:

  • the yield on 10-year treasury bills slightly decreased to 1.47% from 1.48%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates generally tend to track these particular yields of Treasuries, although less recently.
  • Main stock market indices were mixed again at the opening. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers bond prices and increases mortgage yields and rates. The opposite happens when the indices are lower
  • Oil price rose to $ 62.25 from $ 60.78 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play an important role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
  • Gold price pushed higher to $ 1,712 against $ 1,710 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold goes up, and worse when gold goes down. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed Index – Fell to 52 from 54 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and turn to stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. We therefore only count significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Warnings about markets and prices

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess at what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. The Fed is now a major player and some days can overwhelm investor sentiment.

Therefore, only use the markets as a guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong (meaning rates are likely to go up) or low (meaning they might go down) to be a reliable indicator.

But, with that caveat, so far Mortgage rates today look likely to hold up or move up a bit. Just be aware that intraday fluctuations (when rates change direction during the day) are common at this time.

Find and lock a great rate (May 24, 2021)

Important Notes About Current Mortgage Rates

Here are some things you should know:

  1. The Fed’s ongoing interventions in the mortgage market (well above $ 1 trillion) are expected to put continued downward pressure on these rates. But it can’t work wonders all the time. And read ‘For once, the Fed is affecting mortgage rates. here’s why‘if you want to understand this aspect of what’s going on
  2. Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is struggling. But there are exceptions. Lily ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  3. Only “senior” borrowers (with exceptional credit scores, large down payments and very healthy finances) benefit from the extremely low mortgage rates you will see advertised.
  4. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate moves – although they all generally follow the larger trend over time.
  5. When rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate tables unchanged.
  6. Refinancing rates are generally close to those for purchases. But some types of refinancing are higher following a regulatory change

So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks or months to come.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates going up or down?

Today And so on

Yesterday’s mortgage rate hike was largely attributed to investors being scared of the prospect of inflation.

Those who hold fixed rate assets – such as US Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities – fear inflation. Because they get low returns when in the future interest rates will rise.

Right now, many are worried about a rapid economic recovery from the pandemic combined with massive public borrowing for COVID-19 aid. They believe that these two things combined could cause the economy to overheat, which will likely lead to higher inflation rates.

This fear was the main driver of the mortgage rate hike in February. And, if it is still gaining traction among investors, it could easily cause further upward movement.

What is the likelihood of that? Your guess is as good as mine. But I would suggest caution. Overnight, IG’s Kyle Rodda summed it up:

After stabilizing since the start of the week, it looks like we have returned to watching bond yields climb as 10-year US Treasury yields climbed to 1.48% in Wednesday’s US session. .

For more information on my broader thinking, read our latest weekend edition, which is published every Saturday shortly after 10 a.m. (ET).

Recently

For much of 2020, the general trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. New weekly lows were set 16 times last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low came on January 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

But the rates then went up. Freddie’s March 4 report puts that weekly average at 3.02%, up from 2.97% the week before.

Mortgage rate expert forecasts

Longer term, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates. .

And here are their current rate forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21).

The figures in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. Fannie’s and MBAs were updated on February 18 and 19 respectively. But Freddie now publishes a quarterly forecast and his figures are from mid-January:

Forecaster T1 / 21 T2 / 21 T3 / 21 T4 / 21
Fannie Mae 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9%
Freddie mac 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0%
MBA 2.8% 3.1% 3.3% 3.4%

However, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual. And there is certainly a widening of the gap as the year progresses.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been frightened by the pandemic. And they limit their offers to the more vanilla mortgages and refinances.

But others remain courageous. And you can always find the refinance, mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. You just need to shop more widely.

But, of course, you should be doing a lot of comparison regardless of what type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said:

Buying your mortgage can save you money. It may not sound like a lot, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars during the term of your loan.

Check your new rate (May 24, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology

Mortgage reports receive rates based on selected criteria from several lending partners every day. We arrive at an average rate and an APR for each type of loan to display in our graph. Because we average a range of rates, it gives you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we average the rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The end result is a good overview of daily rates and how they have changed over time.

About Paul Cox

Paul Cox

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